Chicago high temperature
The market settles on the official high at Midway Airport (KMDW). Updated 9:57 am local time.
Traders favor 72° to 73° at 53¢. Forecast models lean toward 70° to 71° at 46%, and give the traders' pick 23%.
- High so far
- 59°at 9:53 am
- Latest reading
- 59°at 9:53 am
- NWS forecast high
- 71°National Weather Service
- Model range
- 69°–71°8 in 10 of 82 runs, adjusted +1° for this station
| Market price | High | Forecast odds |
|---|---|---|
<1¢ | 76° or above | <1% |
11¢ | 74–75° | 3% |
53¢ | 72–73° | 23%−30 points versus market |
37¢ | 70–71° | 46%+10 points versus market |
2¢ | 68–69° | 24%+23 points versus market |
<1¢ | 67° or below | 4% |
A price of 54¢ means traders put the chance at about 54%. Prices are the midpoint between the best bid and ask. Forecast odds come from 82 runs of the GFS and ECMWF ensemble models, adjusted to today's readings and never below the high already recorded. How we calculate this
Traders favor 72° to 73° at 56¢. Forecast models lean toward 70° to 71° at 35%, and give the traders' pick 19%.
- NWS forecast high
- 70°National Weather Service
- Model range
- 69°–71°8 in 10 of 82 runs, adjusted +1° for this station
| Market price | High | Forecast odds |
|---|---|---|
3¢ | 76° or above | <1% |
22¢ | 74–75° | 4%−17 points versus market |
56¢ | 72–73° | 19%−37 points versus market |
18¢ | 70–71° | 35%+17 points versus market |
5¢ | 68–69° | 29%+24 points versus market |
3¢ | 67° or below | 13%+10 points versus market |
A price of 54¢ means traders put the chance at about 54%. Prices are the midpoint between the best bid and ask. Forecast odds come from 82 runs of the GFS and ECMWF ensemble models. How we calculate this
About this market
How does the Chicago high temperature market settle?
It settles on the official daily maximum recorded at Midway Airport (station KMDW). Kalshi's rules name the station's daily climate report and take the final value from The Weather Company. Apps that show a city-wide temperature often use other sensors, so their numbers can differ by a few degrees.
When does the day start and end?
The official climate day runs midnight to midnight in local standard time. During daylight saving time, that means 1:00 am to 1:00 am on the clock. A late-night warm spell after midnight can still count toward the previous day.
What do the forecast odds mean?
We run every member of the GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts through the same temperature ranges as the market. If 30 of 82 runs land in a range, after a small adjustment for the difference between a model grid cell and one thermometer, that range gets roughly 37%.