Track record
Every afternoon we save tomorrow's market prices and our forecast odds for every city. Once the official high is in, we score both. No hindsight, no cherry-picking: every city, every day.
The first results are on their way
Recording starts this afternoon. The first markets settle two days later, and results appear here that afternoon.
Until then, see today's markets or read how the forecast odds work.
How we score
Snapshots are taken around 2 pm Eastern the day before, when both the market and the morning model runs are in. Market prices are scaled so all ranges add up to 100%, which strips out the trading margin. The Brier score adds up the squared error across every range, so it rewards being confident and right, and punishes being confident and wrong. Results come from Kalshi's official settlement.